Research Article

Toward satellite-based growth prediction for mussel aquaculture in Turkish coastal waters: A Dynamic Energy Budget model with an empirically calibrated food parameter

Volume: 43 Number: 4 October 23, 2026
TR EN

Toward satellite-based growth prediction for mussel aquaculture in Turkish coastal waters: A Dynamic Energy Budget model with an empirically calibrated food parameter

Abstract

The Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis is the principal cultured bivalve in Turkish coastal waters, and Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models forced with satellite ocean colour offer a low-cost route to growth prediction. In practice, published parameter sets underestimate shell growth in coastal settings, and the reason is unresolved. We tested a published covariation-method DEB parameterisation against ten grow-out experiments in Türkiye (43 cohort groups in the Aegean, the Dardanelles, the Marmara and the Black Sea), forced with reanalysis sea-surface temperature at culture depth and satellite Level-4 chlorophyll-a. Applied as published (XK=2,1 µg L-1) the model under-predicted at every experiment (RMSE 19.8 mm, bias  mm). Recalibrating the half-saturation constant  alone, with no biological parameter changed, reduced error to 12.7 mm (95% CI 8.1–17.9) under leave-one-experiment-out cross-validation with every data-derived choice refitted inside each fold, and out-performed a satellite-to-in-situ ratio correction by 4.5 mm. We then tested the measurement-scale explanation for that improvement and did not find support for it: at the one site where in-situ chlorophyll is resolved in time and the product observes the site itself the ratio varied three-fold between seasons, rescaling  XK is algebraically identical to rescaling the forcing, and at two sites the product returns no valid retrieval at the deployment at all. The corrected model is therefore an empirical forcing-context calibration, whose residual absorbs unmodelled food quality and culture-system effects, rather than a measurement-scale conversion. Its limits matter as much: a near-zero overall bias masks a mean absolute per-experiment bias of 9.6 mm, and no site-ranking skill was demonstrable against baselines using no chlorophyll or no model. Satellite-forced DEB can reproduce the central tendency of Turkish mussel growth after calibration, but does not yet resolve the between-site differences on which farm siting depends.

Keywords

Supporting Institution

No specific funding was received.

Ethical Statement

This article does not contain any human or animal studies performed by the authors. All growth and environmental data were obtained from previously published sources and publicly available remote-sensing products, so no specific ethical approval was necessary.

Thanks

We thank the Copernicus Marine Service for freely available ocean products and the Add-my-Pet community for curating the DEB parameters our gap-filling relied on. We are grateful to the authors of the validation studies, whose thorough reporting enabled an independent quantitative test.

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Shellfish Culture

Journal Section

Research Article

Publication Date

October 23, 2026

Submission Date

June 8, 2026

Acceptance Date

September 21, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 43 Number: 4

APA
Hasşerbetçi, C., Tunçelli, G., & Can Tunçelli, İ. (2026). Toward satellite-based growth prediction for mussel aquaculture in Turkish coastal waters: A Dynamic Energy Budget model with an empirically calibrated food parameter. Ege Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 43(4), 372-382. https://doi.org/10.12714/egejfas.43.4.06
AMA
1.Hasşerbetçi C, Tunçelli G, Can Tunçelli İ. Toward satellite-based growth prediction for mussel aquaculture in Turkish coastal waters: A Dynamic Energy Budget model with an empirically calibrated food parameter. EgeJFAS. 2026;43(4):372-382. doi:10.12714/egejfas.43.4.06
Chicago
Hasşerbetçi, Cem, Gökhan Tunçelli, and İdil Can Tunçelli. 2026. “Toward Satellite-Based Growth Prediction for Mussel Aquaculture in Turkish Coastal Waters: A Dynamic Energy Budget Model With an Empirically Calibrated Food Parameter”. Ege Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 43 (4): 372-82. https://doi.org/10.12714/egejfas.43.4.06.
EndNote
Hasşerbetçi C, Tunçelli G, Can Tunçelli İ (October 1, 2026) Toward satellite-based growth prediction for mussel aquaculture in Turkish coastal waters: A Dynamic Energy Budget model with an empirically calibrated food parameter. Ege Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 43 4 372–382.
IEEE
[1]C. Hasşerbetçi, G. Tunçelli, and İ. Can Tunçelli, “Toward satellite-based growth prediction for mussel aquaculture in Turkish coastal waters: A Dynamic Energy Budget model with an empirically calibrated food parameter”, EgeJFAS, vol. 43, no. 4, pp. 372–382, Oct. 2026, doi: 10.12714/egejfas.43.4.06.
ISNAD
Hasşerbetçi, Cem - Tunçelli, Gökhan - Can Tunçelli, İdil. “Toward Satellite-Based Growth Prediction for Mussel Aquaculture in Turkish Coastal Waters: A Dynamic Energy Budget Model With an Empirically Calibrated Food Parameter”. Ege Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 43/4 (October 1, 2026): 372-382. https://doi.org/10.12714/egejfas.43.4.06.
JAMA
1.Hasşerbetçi C, Tunçelli G, Can Tunçelli İ. Toward satellite-based growth prediction for mussel aquaculture in Turkish coastal waters: A Dynamic Energy Budget model with an empirically calibrated food parameter. EgeJFAS. 2026;43:372–382.
MLA
Hasşerbetçi, Cem, et al. “Toward Satellite-Based Growth Prediction for Mussel Aquaculture in Turkish Coastal Waters: A Dynamic Energy Budget Model With an Empirically Calibrated Food Parameter”. Ege Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, vol. 43, no. 4, Oct. 2026, pp. 372-8, doi:10.12714/egejfas.43.4.06.
Vancouver
1.Cem Hasşerbetçi, Gökhan Tunçelli, İdil Can Tunçelli. Toward satellite-based growth prediction for mussel aquaculture in Turkish coastal waters: A Dynamic Energy Budget model with an empirically calibrated food parameter. EgeJFAS. 2026 Oct. 1;43(4):372-8. doi:10.12714/egejfas.43.4.06