Strategic decoupling and structural resilience in global seafood trade: Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2024)

Mehmet Fatih Can; Metin Yazıcı; Azize Ahsen Can

doi:10.12714/egejfas.43.2.06

EN TR

Strategic decoupling and structural resilience in global seafood trade: Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2024)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic induced unprecedented disruptions in global food supply chains, with the seafood sector experiencing unique volatility due to its high perishability and complex logistics. This study investigates the resilience of global seafood trade by analyzing import data obtained from the International Trade Centre (ITC) Trade Map database across nine product categories defined under the Harmonized System (HS 0301–0309) from 2020 to 2024. Utilizing a dual-metric approach of market volatility (Coefficient of Variation) and recovery velocity (CAGR), we identify a significant structural shift in market composition. Results indicate that while high-value, logistics-sensitive categories like crustaceans (HS 0306) exhibited moderate volatility, processed categories such as fish fillets (HS 0304) demonstrated superior resilience, consolidating a permanent market share above 22%. Furthermore, a distinct "V-shaped" recovery in fresh/chilled products (HS 0302) by 2024 suggests a full restoration of global logistics networks, yet under a new equilibrium where shelf-stable and value-added products play a more critical role in food security. These findings highlight the need to promote processing capacity, value addition, and product diversification strategies to enhance the resilience of global seafood trade against future systemic shocks. This research provides strategic insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders, emphasizing that future industry resilience depends on value-addition and the diversification of product forms to mitigate systemic shocks.

Keywords

Küresel deniz ürünleri ticaretinde stratejik ayrışma ve yapısal dayanıklılık: COVID-19 pandemisinden çıkarılan dersler (2020–2024)

Öz

COVID-19 pandemisi, küresel gıda tedarik zincirlerinde eşi benzeri görülmemiş aksamalara yol açmış; deniz ürünleri sektörü ise yüksek bozulabilirlik ve karmaşık lojistik yapısı nedeniyle bu süreçte özgün bir oynaklık sergilemiştir. Bu çalışma, 2020–2024 döneminde, Uluslararası Ticaret Merkezi (ITC) Trade Map veri tabanından elde edilen ithalat verilerini, Uyumlaştırılmış Sistem (HS 0301–0309) kapsamında tanımlanan dokuz ürün kategorisi üzerinden analiz ederek küresel deniz ürünleri ticaretinin dayanıklılığını incelemektedir. Piyasa Oynaklığı (Varyasyon Katsayısı) ve Toparlanma Hızı (Bileşik Yıllık Büyüme Oranı, CAGR) olmak üzere iki göstergeden oluşan ikili bir analitik yaklaşım kullanılarak, piyasa bileşiminde belirgin bir yapısal dönüşüm tespit edilmiştir. Bulgular, kabuklular (HS 0306) gibi yüksek katma değerli ve lojistik açıdan hassas ürün gruplarının orta düzeyde oynaklık sergilediğini; buna karşılık balık filetoları (HS 0304) gibi işlenmiş ürün kategorilerinin üstün bir dayanıklılık göstererek %22’nin üzerinde kalıcı bir pazar payını koruduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, taze/soğutulmuş ürünlerde (HS 0302) 2024 yılı itibarıyla gözlenen belirgin “V-şekilli” toparlanma, küresel lojistik ağlarının büyük ölçüde yeniden işlerlik kazandığına işaret etmekte; ancak bu toparlanmanın, raf ömrü uzun ve katma değerli ürünlerin gıda güvenliğinde daha kritik bir rol üstlendiği yeni bir denge altında gerçekleştiğini göstermektedir. Bu bulgular, gelecekteki sistemik şoklara karşı küresel deniz ürünleri ticaretinin dayanıklılığını artırmak amacıyla işleme kapasitesinin geliştirilmesini, katma değer oluşturulmasını ve ürün çeşitlendirme stratejilerinin desteklenmesini hedefleyen politikaların gerekliliğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu çalışma, sistemik şokların etkilerinin azaltılmasında katma değer yaratılmasının ve ürün formlarının çeşitlendirilmesinin belirleyici olduğuna vurgu yaparak, politika yapıcılar ve sektör paydaşları için stratejik çıkarımlar sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Supporting Institution

The authors declare that this research did not receive any specific funding from public, commercial, or non-profit funding bodies.

Ethical Statement

No specific ethical approval was required for this study.

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Fisheries Management , Aquaculture and Fisheries (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Mehmet Fatih Can
0000-0002-3866-2419
Türkiye

Metin Yazıcı ^*
0000-0002-7011-886X
Türkiye

Azize Ahsen Can
0009-0000-8354-561X
Türkiye

Publication Date

March 31, 2026

Submission Date

January 19, 2026

Acceptance Date

March 24, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 1970 Volume: 43 Number: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.12714/egejfas.43.2.06

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA89HW62HZ

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Can, M. F., Yazıcı, M., & Can, A. A. (2026). Strategic decoupling and structural resilience in global seafood trade: Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2024). Ege Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 43(2), 138-144. https://doi.org/10.12714/egejfas.43.2.06