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Ekstrem yağışların zamansal eğilim analizi: Konya Kapalı Havzası örneği

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 8, 956 - 961, 31.12.2019

Öz

Aşırı iklim olaylarının sıklığı ve yoğunluğundaki değişiklikler önemli sosyal, ekonomik ve çevresel sorunlara neden olmaktadır. Özellikle, iklim değişikliğinin ekstrem yağışlar üzerindeki etkilerini araştırmak çok önemlidir. Son yıllarda birçok araştırmacı tarafından küresel, bölgesel ve yerel ölçekte ekstrem yağışların mekansal ve zamansal değişimi araştırılmıştır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de Konya Kapalı Havzası’nda bulunan 4 meteoroloji istasyonunun (Konya, Karaman, Aksaray, Niğde)ekstrem yağışlarının zamansal değişimi araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla, Mann-Kendall (MK), Spearman’s Rho ve Innovative Şen Trend testleri kullanılmıştır. Trend yöntemlerinin sonuçlarına göre Aksaray, Karaman ve Niğde meteoroloji istasyonlarında ekstrem yağış verileri istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmayan azalma, Konya meteoroloji istasyonunda ise anlamlı olmayan artış eğilimleri elde edilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Donat MG, Lowry AL, Alexander LV, O’Gorman PA, Maher N. “More Extreme Precipitation in the World’s Dry and Wet Region”. Nature Climate Change, 6(5), 508-513, 2016.
  • Zhang M, Chen YN, Shen YJ, Li YP. “Changes of precipitation extremes in arid central Asia”. Quaternary International, 436, 16-27, 2017.
  • Chen YN, Deng HJ, Li BF, Li Z, Xu CC. “Abrubt change of temperature and precipitation extremes in the arid region of Northwest China”. Quaternary International, 336(12), 35-43, 2014.
  • Bohlinger P, Sorteberg A. “A comprehensive view on trends in extreme precipitation in Nepal and their spatial distribution”. International Journal of Climatology, 38, 1833-1845, 2018.
  • Talchabhadel R, Karki R, Parajuli B. “Intercomparison of precipitation measured between automatic and manual precipitation gauge in Nepal”. Measurement, 106, 264-273, 2016.
  • Fu J, Qian W, Lin X, Chen D. “Trends in graded precipitation in China from 1961-2000”. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 25, 267-278, 2008.
  • You Q, Kang S, Aguilar E, Pepin N, Flugel W, Yan Y, Xu Y, Zhang Y, Huang J. “Changes in daily climate extremes in China and their connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation during 1961-2003”. Climate Dynamics, 36, 2399-2417, 2011.
  • Alexander L, Zhang X, Peterson T, Caesar J, Gleason B, Tank A, Hay-lock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Kumar K, Revadekar J, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson D, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticucci M, Vazquez-Aguirre J. “Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation”. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 111, D05109, 2006.
  • Mavromatis T, Stathis D. “Response of the water balance in Greece to temperature and precipitation trends”. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 104(1-2), 13-24, 2011.
  • Mei C, Liu J, Chen MT, Wang H, Li M, Yu Y. “Multi-decadal spatial and temporal changes of extreme precipitation patterns northern China (Jing-Jin-Ji District, 1960-2013)”. Quaternary International, 476, 1-13, 2018.
  • Shrestha KL. “Global change impact assessment for Himalayan mountain regions for environmental management and sustainable development”. Global Environmental Research, 9(1), 69-81, 2005.
  • Chu PS, Chen DJ, Lin PL. “Trends in precipitation extremes during the typhoon season in Taiwan over the last 60 years”. Atmospheric Science Letters, 15 (1), 37-43, 2014.
  • Ozgur E, Yilmaz MU. “Trend investigation of extreme precipitation for Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey”. 1st International Conference on Engineering Technology and Applied Sciences, Afyon Kocatepe University, Afyonkarahisar, Turkey, 21-22 April 2016.
  • Acar R, Senocak S. “Annual extreme precipitation trends for Western Turkey in associated with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index”. Energy Education Science and Technology Part a-Energy Science and Research, 29(1), 475-486, 2012.
  • Hadi SJ, Tombul M. “Trend analysis and formula development of extreme rainfall events: a case study of Hopa, Turkey”. International Journal of Energy and Environment, 11, 145-152, 2017.
  • Tosunoğlu F. “Trend analysis of daily maximum rainfall Series in Çoruh Basin, Turkey”. Iğdır Univ. J. Inst. Sci. & Tech. 7(1), 195-205, 2017.
  • Mann HB. “Non-parametric tests against trend”. Econometrica, 13, 245-259, 1945.
  • Kendall MG. Rank Correlation Methods. London: Griffin & Co, 1975.
  • Lehmann EL. Nonparametrics, Statistical Methods Based on Ranks. Holden -Day, Inc, California, 1975.
  • Sneyers R. “On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations”. World Meteorological Organization, Technical Note no. 143, WMO no. 145, 1990.
  • Şen Z. “Innovative trend analysis methodology”. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042-1046, 2012.
  • Elouissi A, Şen Z, Habi M. “Algerian rainfall innovative trend analysis and its implications to Macta watershed”. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 9(303), 1-12, 2016.
  • Sensoy S, Coşkun M, Sumer UM, Demircan M, Gürkan H, Eskioğlu O, Yazıcı B, Türkoğlu N, Çiçek İ. “Karaman ve Karapınar’ın iklim değişikliği trendleri”. IV. Türkiye İklim Değişikliği Kongresi (TİKDEK), İstanbul, Türkiye, 5-7 Temmuz 2017.
  • Turkeş M, Koç T, Sariş F. “Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation total series over Turkey”. International Journal Climatol, 29, 1056-1074, 2009.
  • Partal T. Türkiye Yağış Verilerinin Trend Analizi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, İstanbul, 2003.
  • Yılmaz M. Türkiye Akarsu Havzalarındaki Yıllık Anlık Maksimum Akımların Trend Analizi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Erzurum Teknik Üniversitesi, Erzurum, Türkiye, 2019.
  • Elmalı M. Türkiye Akarsu Havzalarındaki Yıllık Ortalama Akımların Trend Analizi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Erzurum Teknik Üniversitesi, Erzurum, Türkiye, 2019.
  • Bilge Demir H. Güneyli Salınımın İç Anadolu Bölgesi Yağış Verileri Üzerine Etkisi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Konya Teknik Üniversitesi, Konya, Türkiye, 2019.

Temporal trend analysis of extreme precipitation: a case study of Konya Closed Basin

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 8, 956 - 961, 31.12.2019

Öz

The changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events bring about many important problems in terms of social, economic and environmental. Especially, it is very important to inquire the influences of climate change on extreme precipitation. Spatial and temporal trends of extreme precipitation have been investigated by many researchers at global, regional and local scales in recent years. This study is about the temporal variability of extreme precipitation of 4 meteorology station (Konya, Karaman, Aksaray, Nigde) on Konya Closed Basin in Turkey. Trend analysis of extreme precipitations was conducted by means of the Spearman’s Rho (SR), Mann-Kendall (MK) and Innovative Şen Trend test. According to the results of trend methods, non-significant decreasing trends are observed in extreme precipitation data of Aksaray, Karaman and Nigde meteorology stations while non-significant increasing trend is shown only in Konya meteorology station.

Kaynakça

  • Donat MG, Lowry AL, Alexander LV, O’Gorman PA, Maher N. “More Extreme Precipitation in the World’s Dry and Wet Region”. Nature Climate Change, 6(5), 508-513, 2016.
  • Zhang M, Chen YN, Shen YJ, Li YP. “Changes of precipitation extremes in arid central Asia”. Quaternary International, 436, 16-27, 2017.
  • Chen YN, Deng HJ, Li BF, Li Z, Xu CC. “Abrubt change of temperature and precipitation extremes in the arid region of Northwest China”. Quaternary International, 336(12), 35-43, 2014.
  • Bohlinger P, Sorteberg A. “A comprehensive view on trends in extreme precipitation in Nepal and their spatial distribution”. International Journal of Climatology, 38, 1833-1845, 2018.
  • Talchabhadel R, Karki R, Parajuli B. “Intercomparison of precipitation measured between automatic and manual precipitation gauge in Nepal”. Measurement, 106, 264-273, 2016.
  • Fu J, Qian W, Lin X, Chen D. “Trends in graded precipitation in China from 1961-2000”. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 25, 267-278, 2008.
  • You Q, Kang S, Aguilar E, Pepin N, Flugel W, Yan Y, Xu Y, Zhang Y, Huang J. “Changes in daily climate extremes in China and their connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation during 1961-2003”. Climate Dynamics, 36, 2399-2417, 2011.
  • Alexander L, Zhang X, Peterson T, Caesar J, Gleason B, Tank A, Hay-lock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Kumar K, Revadekar J, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson D, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticucci M, Vazquez-Aguirre J. “Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation”. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 111, D05109, 2006.
  • Mavromatis T, Stathis D. “Response of the water balance in Greece to temperature and precipitation trends”. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 104(1-2), 13-24, 2011.
  • Mei C, Liu J, Chen MT, Wang H, Li M, Yu Y. “Multi-decadal spatial and temporal changes of extreme precipitation patterns northern China (Jing-Jin-Ji District, 1960-2013)”. Quaternary International, 476, 1-13, 2018.
  • Shrestha KL. “Global change impact assessment for Himalayan mountain regions for environmental management and sustainable development”. Global Environmental Research, 9(1), 69-81, 2005.
  • Chu PS, Chen DJ, Lin PL. “Trends in precipitation extremes during the typhoon season in Taiwan over the last 60 years”. Atmospheric Science Letters, 15 (1), 37-43, 2014.
  • Ozgur E, Yilmaz MU. “Trend investigation of extreme precipitation for Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey”. 1st International Conference on Engineering Technology and Applied Sciences, Afyon Kocatepe University, Afyonkarahisar, Turkey, 21-22 April 2016.
  • Acar R, Senocak S. “Annual extreme precipitation trends for Western Turkey in associated with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index”. Energy Education Science and Technology Part a-Energy Science and Research, 29(1), 475-486, 2012.
  • Hadi SJ, Tombul M. “Trend analysis and formula development of extreme rainfall events: a case study of Hopa, Turkey”. International Journal of Energy and Environment, 11, 145-152, 2017.
  • Tosunoğlu F. “Trend analysis of daily maximum rainfall Series in Çoruh Basin, Turkey”. Iğdır Univ. J. Inst. Sci. & Tech. 7(1), 195-205, 2017.
  • Mann HB. “Non-parametric tests against trend”. Econometrica, 13, 245-259, 1945.
  • Kendall MG. Rank Correlation Methods. London: Griffin & Co, 1975.
  • Lehmann EL. Nonparametrics, Statistical Methods Based on Ranks. Holden -Day, Inc, California, 1975.
  • Sneyers R. “On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations”. World Meteorological Organization, Technical Note no. 143, WMO no. 145, 1990.
  • Şen Z. “Innovative trend analysis methodology”. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042-1046, 2012.
  • Elouissi A, Şen Z, Habi M. “Algerian rainfall innovative trend analysis and its implications to Macta watershed”. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 9(303), 1-12, 2016.
  • Sensoy S, Coşkun M, Sumer UM, Demircan M, Gürkan H, Eskioğlu O, Yazıcı B, Türkoğlu N, Çiçek İ. “Karaman ve Karapınar’ın iklim değişikliği trendleri”. IV. Türkiye İklim Değişikliği Kongresi (TİKDEK), İstanbul, Türkiye, 5-7 Temmuz 2017.
  • Turkeş M, Koç T, Sariş F. “Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation total series over Turkey”. International Journal Climatol, 29, 1056-1074, 2009.
  • Partal T. Türkiye Yağış Verilerinin Trend Analizi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, İstanbul, 2003.
  • Yılmaz M. Türkiye Akarsu Havzalarındaki Yıllık Anlık Maksimum Akımların Trend Analizi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Erzurum Teknik Üniversitesi, Erzurum, Türkiye, 2019.
  • Elmalı M. Türkiye Akarsu Havzalarındaki Yıllık Ortalama Akımların Trend Analizi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Erzurum Teknik Üniversitesi, Erzurum, Türkiye, 2019.
  • Bilge Demir H. Güneyli Salınımın İç Anadolu Bölgesi Yağış Verileri Üzerine Etkisi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Konya Teknik Üniversitesi, Konya, Türkiye, 2019.
Toplam 28 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Mühendislik
Bölüm Özel Sayı
Yazarlar

Cihangir Köyceğiz

Meral Büyükyıldız

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Aralık 2019
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2019 Cilt: 25 Sayı: 8

Kaynak Göster

APA Köyceğiz, C., & Büyükyıldız, M. (2019). Temporal trend analysis of extreme precipitation: a case study of Konya Closed Basin. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 25(8), 956-961.
AMA Köyceğiz C, Büyükyıldız M. Temporal trend analysis of extreme precipitation: a case study of Konya Closed Basin. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi. Aralık 2019;25(8):956-961.
Chicago Köyceğiz, Cihangir, ve Meral Büyükyıldız. “Temporal Trend Analysis of Extreme Precipitation: A Case Study of Konya Closed Basin”. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi 25, sy. 8 (Aralık 2019): 956-61.
EndNote Köyceğiz C, Büyükyıldız M (01 Aralık 2019) Temporal trend analysis of extreme precipitation: a case study of Konya Closed Basin. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi 25 8 956–961.
IEEE C. Köyceğiz ve M. Büyükyıldız, “Temporal trend analysis of extreme precipitation: a case study of Konya Closed Basin”, Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, c. 25, sy. 8, ss. 956–961, 2019.
ISNAD Köyceğiz, Cihangir - Büyükyıldız, Meral. “Temporal Trend Analysis of Extreme Precipitation: A Case Study of Konya Closed Basin”. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi 25/8 (Aralık 2019), 956-961.
JAMA Köyceğiz C, Büyükyıldız M. Temporal trend analysis of extreme precipitation: a case study of Konya Closed Basin. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi. 2019;25:956–961.
MLA Köyceğiz, Cihangir ve Meral Büyükyıldız. “Temporal Trend Analysis of Extreme Precipitation: A Case Study of Konya Closed Basin”. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, c. 25, sy. 8, 2019, ss. 956-61.
Vancouver Köyceğiz C, Büyükyıldız M. Temporal trend analysis of extreme precipitation: a case study of Konya Closed Basin. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi. 2019;25(8):956-61.





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