Research Article
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The impact of uncertainty on international trade: an evidence from container traffic in Turkish ports

Year 2020, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 1 - 10, 28.12.2020

Abstract

Since container trade is mostly used for the transportation of finished products, it can be used as a measurement tool in tracking the trade of high value-added products in the international arena. This study aims to examine the effect of uncertainties on international trade through the amount of exported and imported containers handled in Turkish ports. The dataset consists of 64 quarterly observations and covers the periods between the first quarter of 2004 and the last quarter of 2019. The results of the asymmetric causality test applied reveal that negative shocks in the uncertainty index are the cause of positive shocks in both exported and imported container quantities. This shows that the decrease in uncertainties within the country has a positive effect on container traffic in ports and thus on international trade. However, a reducing effect of the increase in uncertainty cannot be determined.

References

  • Abaidoo, R. (2019). Policy uncertainty and dynamics of international trade. Journal of Financial Economic Policy 11(1), 101-120.
  • Açık, A. (2019). Volatility spillover from global container freight indices to port throughputs in Turkey. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi 5(1), 101-113.
  • Açık, A., Sağlam, B.B. & Kayıran, B. (2019b). Industrial production as a leading indicator for container port throughput in Turkey. Dokuz Eylül University Maritime Faculty Journal 11(1), 37 – 56.
  • Açık, A., Sağlam, B.B. & Tepe, R. (2019a). Time-varying causality between exchange rate and container handling volume in Turkish ports. Transport & Logistics: The International Journal 19(46), 1-11.
  • Adıgüzel, U., Bayat, T., Kayhan, S., & Nazlıoğlu, Ş. (2013). Oil prices and exchange rates in Brazil, India and Turkey: Time and frequency domain causality analysis. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi 1(1): 49-73.
  • Ahir, H., Bloom, N., & Furceri, D. (2018). The world uncertainty index. https://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/WUI_mimeo_10_29.pdf (Access Date: 30.03.2020)
  • Aizenman, J., & Marion, N.P. (1993). Macroeconomic uncertainty and private investment. Economics Letters 41(2), 207-210.
  • Akar, O., & Esmer, S. (2015). Cargo demand analysis of container terminals in Turkey. Journal of ETA Maritime Science 3(2), 117-122.
  • Anderson, J.L. (1995). Explaining long-term economic change (No. 10). UK: Cambridge University Press.
  • Ateş, A., & Esmer, S. (2014). Farklı yöntemler ile Türk konteyner limanlarının verimliliği. Verimlilik Dergisi 1, 61–76.
  • Ateş, A., Esmer, S., Çakir, E., & Balci, K. (2013). Karadeniz konteyner terminallerinin göreceli etkinlik analizi. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Denizcilik Fakültesi Dergisi 5(1), 1-22.
  • Avom, D., Njangang, H., & Nawo, L. (2020). World economic policy uncertainty and foreign direct investment. Economics Bulletin 40(2), 1457-1464.
  • Bal, D.P., & Rath, B.N. (2015). Nonlinear causality between crude oil price and exchange rate: A comparative study of China and India. Energy Economics 51, 149-156.
  • Branch, A.E. (1988). Economics of shipping practice and management (2nd ed). New York: Springer Science & Business Media.
  • Canh, N.P., Binh, N.T., Thanh, S.D., & Schinckus, C. (2020). Determinants of foreign direct investment inflows: The role of economic policy uncertainty. International Economics 161, 159-172.
  • Chi, J. & Cheng, S.K. (2016). Do exchange rate volatility and income affect Australia’s maritime export flows to Asia?. Transport Policy 47, 13-21.
  • Chou, C.C., Chu, C.W., & Liang, G.S. (2008). A modified regression model for forecasting the volumes of Taiwan’s import containers. Mathematical and Computer Modelling 47(9-10), 797-807.
  • Dickey, D.A. & Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association 74, 427–431.
  • DTGM (2019). Container statistics. https://atlantis.udhb.gov.tr/istatistik/istatistik_konteyner.aspx (Access Date: 30.03.2020)
  • EPU (2019). Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. https://www.policyuncertainty.com/wui_quarterly.html (Access Date: 30.03.2020)
  • Gosasang, V., Yip, T.L., & Chandraprakaikul, W. (2018). Long-term container throughput forecast and equipment planning: The case of Bangkok Port. Maritime Business Review 3(1), 53-69.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica 37(3), 424-438.
  • Güner, S. (2015a). Investigating infrastructure, superstructure, operating and financial efficiency in the management of Turkish seaports using data envelopment analysis. Transport Policy 40, 36-48.
  • Güner, S. (2015b). Proposal of a two-stage model for measuring the port efficiency and an implication on Turkish ports. Alphanumeric Journal 3(2), 99-106.
  • Hatemi-j, A. (2012a). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics 43(1), 447-456.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2012b). Is the UAE stock market integrated with the USA stock market? New evidence from asymmetric causality testing. Research in International Business and Finance 26(2), 273-280.
  • Hatemi-J, A. & Uddin, G.S. (2012). Is the causal nexus of energy utilization and economic growth asymmetric in the US?. Economic Systems 36(3), 461-469.
  • Kim, C.B., (2016). Impact of exchange rate movements, global economic activity, and the BDI volatility on loaded port cargo throughput in South Korea. The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics 32(4), 243-248.
  • Kim, C.B., (2017). Does exchange rate volatility affect Korea's seaborne import volume?. The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics 33(1), 43-50.
  • Kumar, S. (2017). On the nonlinear relation between crude oil and gold. Resources Policy 51, 219-224.
  • Lättilä, L. & Hilmola, O.P. (2012). Forecasting long-term demand of largest Finnish sea ports. International Journal of Applied Management Science 4(1), 52-79.
  • Lee, J. & Strazicich, M.C. (2013). Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Economics Bulletin 33(4), 2483-2492.
  • Lewis, A. (2008). The Cambridge handbook of psychology and economic behaviour. UK: Cambridge University Press.
  • Ruixiang, X., Xiangyun, X., & Yu, S. (2018). Economic policy uncertainty and low growth of international trade: An analysis based on the Gravity model. Journal of Finance and Economics 44(7), 60-72.
  • Sağlam, B.B., Açık, A., & Ertürk, E. (2018). Evaluation of investment impact on port efficiency: Berthing time difference as a performance indicator. Journal of ETA Maritime Science 6(1), 37-46.
  • Sağlam, B.B. & Karataş Çetin, Ç. (2018). A qualitative examination of relational and contractual governance mechanisms in Aliaga port cluster. Journal of ETA Maritime Science 6(4), 365-378.
  • Şeker, A. (2020). The impacts of liner shipping connectivity and economic growth on international trade: Case of European Countries and Turkey. Ceyhun, Gökçe Çiçek (Ed.). In Handbook of Research on the Applications of International Transportation and Logistics for World Trade, USA: IGI Global.
  • Shahbaz, M., van Hoang, T.H., Mahalik, M.K., & Roubaud, D. (2017). Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis. Energy Economics 63, 199-212.
  • Talley, W.K. (2006). An economic theory of the port. Research in Transportation Economics 16, 43-65.
  • Toda, H.Y. & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics 66, 225–250.
  • Tsai, F.M. & Huang, L.J. (2017). Using artificial neural networks to predict container flows between the major ports of Asia. International Journal of Production Research 55(17), 5001-5010.
  • TUİK (2020). Trade rates by sea. http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreIstatistikTablo.do?istab_id=2908, Access Date: 11.08.2020.
  • van Bergeijk, P.A. (2009). Economic diplomacy and the geography of international trade. USA: Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Wei, Y. (2019). Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and China’s trade: A quantitative structural analysis. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance 48, 20-31.
  • Zivot, E. & Andrews, D.W.K. (1992). Further evidence on the Great Crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 20(1), 25-44.
Year 2020, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 1 - 10, 28.12.2020

Abstract

References

  • Abaidoo, R. (2019). Policy uncertainty and dynamics of international trade. Journal of Financial Economic Policy 11(1), 101-120.
  • Açık, A. (2019). Volatility spillover from global container freight indices to port throughputs in Turkey. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi 5(1), 101-113.
  • Açık, A., Sağlam, B.B. & Kayıran, B. (2019b). Industrial production as a leading indicator for container port throughput in Turkey. Dokuz Eylül University Maritime Faculty Journal 11(1), 37 – 56.
  • Açık, A., Sağlam, B.B. & Tepe, R. (2019a). Time-varying causality between exchange rate and container handling volume in Turkish ports. Transport & Logistics: The International Journal 19(46), 1-11.
  • Adıgüzel, U., Bayat, T., Kayhan, S., & Nazlıoğlu, Ş. (2013). Oil prices and exchange rates in Brazil, India and Turkey: Time and frequency domain causality analysis. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi 1(1): 49-73.
  • Ahir, H., Bloom, N., & Furceri, D. (2018). The world uncertainty index. https://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/WUI_mimeo_10_29.pdf (Access Date: 30.03.2020)
  • Aizenman, J., & Marion, N.P. (1993). Macroeconomic uncertainty and private investment. Economics Letters 41(2), 207-210.
  • Akar, O., & Esmer, S. (2015). Cargo demand analysis of container terminals in Turkey. Journal of ETA Maritime Science 3(2), 117-122.
  • Anderson, J.L. (1995). Explaining long-term economic change (No. 10). UK: Cambridge University Press.
  • Ateş, A., & Esmer, S. (2014). Farklı yöntemler ile Türk konteyner limanlarının verimliliği. Verimlilik Dergisi 1, 61–76.
  • Ateş, A., Esmer, S., Çakir, E., & Balci, K. (2013). Karadeniz konteyner terminallerinin göreceli etkinlik analizi. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Denizcilik Fakültesi Dergisi 5(1), 1-22.
  • Avom, D., Njangang, H., & Nawo, L. (2020). World economic policy uncertainty and foreign direct investment. Economics Bulletin 40(2), 1457-1464.
  • Bal, D.P., & Rath, B.N. (2015). Nonlinear causality between crude oil price and exchange rate: A comparative study of China and India. Energy Economics 51, 149-156.
  • Branch, A.E. (1988). Economics of shipping practice and management (2nd ed). New York: Springer Science & Business Media.
  • Canh, N.P., Binh, N.T., Thanh, S.D., & Schinckus, C. (2020). Determinants of foreign direct investment inflows: The role of economic policy uncertainty. International Economics 161, 159-172.
  • Chi, J. & Cheng, S.K. (2016). Do exchange rate volatility and income affect Australia’s maritime export flows to Asia?. Transport Policy 47, 13-21.
  • Chou, C.C., Chu, C.W., & Liang, G.S. (2008). A modified regression model for forecasting the volumes of Taiwan’s import containers. Mathematical and Computer Modelling 47(9-10), 797-807.
  • Dickey, D.A. & Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association 74, 427–431.
  • DTGM (2019). Container statistics. https://atlantis.udhb.gov.tr/istatistik/istatistik_konteyner.aspx (Access Date: 30.03.2020)
  • EPU (2019). Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. https://www.policyuncertainty.com/wui_quarterly.html (Access Date: 30.03.2020)
  • Gosasang, V., Yip, T.L., & Chandraprakaikul, W. (2018). Long-term container throughput forecast and equipment planning: The case of Bangkok Port. Maritime Business Review 3(1), 53-69.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica 37(3), 424-438.
  • Güner, S. (2015a). Investigating infrastructure, superstructure, operating and financial efficiency in the management of Turkish seaports using data envelopment analysis. Transport Policy 40, 36-48.
  • Güner, S. (2015b). Proposal of a two-stage model for measuring the port efficiency and an implication on Turkish ports. Alphanumeric Journal 3(2), 99-106.
  • Hatemi-j, A. (2012a). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics 43(1), 447-456.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2012b). Is the UAE stock market integrated with the USA stock market? New evidence from asymmetric causality testing. Research in International Business and Finance 26(2), 273-280.
  • Hatemi-J, A. & Uddin, G.S. (2012). Is the causal nexus of energy utilization and economic growth asymmetric in the US?. Economic Systems 36(3), 461-469.
  • Kim, C.B., (2016). Impact of exchange rate movements, global economic activity, and the BDI volatility on loaded port cargo throughput in South Korea. The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics 32(4), 243-248.
  • Kim, C.B., (2017). Does exchange rate volatility affect Korea's seaborne import volume?. The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics 33(1), 43-50.
  • Kumar, S. (2017). On the nonlinear relation between crude oil and gold. Resources Policy 51, 219-224.
  • Lättilä, L. & Hilmola, O.P. (2012). Forecasting long-term demand of largest Finnish sea ports. International Journal of Applied Management Science 4(1), 52-79.
  • Lee, J. & Strazicich, M.C. (2013). Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Economics Bulletin 33(4), 2483-2492.
  • Lewis, A. (2008). The Cambridge handbook of psychology and economic behaviour. UK: Cambridge University Press.
  • Ruixiang, X., Xiangyun, X., & Yu, S. (2018). Economic policy uncertainty and low growth of international trade: An analysis based on the Gravity model. Journal of Finance and Economics 44(7), 60-72.
  • Sağlam, B.B., Açık, A., & Ertürk, E. (2018). Evaluation of investment impact on port efficiency: Berthing time difference as a performance indicator. Journal of ETA Maritime Science 6(1), 37-46.
  • Sağlam, B.B. & Karataş Çetin, Ç. (2018). A qualitative examination of relational and contractual governance mechanisms in Aliaga port cluster. Journal of ETA Maritime Science 6(4), 365-378.
  • Şeker, A. (2020). The impacts of liner shipping connectivity and economic growth on international trade: Case of European Countries and Turkey. Ceyhun, Gökçe Çiçek (Ed.). In Handbook of Research on the Applications of International Transportation and Logistics for World Trade, USA: IGI Global.
  • Shahbaz, M., van Hoang, T.H., Mahalik, M.K., & Roubaud, D. (2017). Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis. Energy Economics 63, 199-212.
  • Talley, W.K. (2006). An economic theory of the port. Research in Transportation Economics 16, 43-65.
  • Toda, H.Y. & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics 66, 225–250.
  • Tsai, F.M. & Huang, L.J. (2017). Using artificial neural networks to predict container flows between the major ports of Asia. International Journal of Production Research 55(17), 5001-5010.
  • TUİK (2020). Trade rates by sea. http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreIstatistikTablo.do?istab_id=2908, Access Date: 11.08.2020.
  • van Bergeijk, P.A. (2009). Economic diplomacy and the geography of international trade. USA: Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Wei, Y. (2019). Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and China’s trade: A quantitative structural analysis. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance 48, 20-31.
  • Zivot, E. & Andrews, D.W.K. (1992). Further evidence on the Great Crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 20(1), 25-44.
There are 45 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Abdullah Açık 0000-0003-4542-9831

Publication Date December 28, 2020
Submission Date November 10, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 3 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Açık, A. (2020). The impact of uncertainty on international trade: an evidence from container traffic in Turkish ports. Journal of Politics Economy and Management, 3(2), 1-10.

The author(s) is (are) the sole responsible for the opinion and views stated in the articles.

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